Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Seraing United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Seraing United travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Seraing United stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Seraing United's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Seraing United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Seraing United, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Seraing United in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 57% versus Seraing United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 62% | Seraing United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.42 xG and Seraing United 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.149 / defence 0.891 | Seraing United attack 0.843 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.314. Seraing United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Union St. Gilloise games / 66 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 68% | Draw 19% | Seraing United 13%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Seraing United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Seraing United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 68% | Draw 19% | Seraing United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.42 / Seraing United 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.149 / def 0.891 | Seraing United attack 0.843 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Seraing United xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Seraing United.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 68% chance of winning, Seraing United a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 3W | Draws 0 | Seraing United 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Seraing United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.15x the league average against Seraing United's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seraing United's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.31
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.41
0.99
Seraing United xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
1%
87.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.99 for Seraing United, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 44W 12D 12L from 68 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Seraing United, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 45L across 68 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 22W 5D 7L from 34 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seraing United's away record stands at 8W 2D 24L across 34 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 0.84 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Seraing United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 44W 12D 12L in their last 68 games (2.12 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 14W 9D 45L in their last 68 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Seraing United away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.09 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Seraing United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Seraing United in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Seraing United specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Seraing United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 53%, Seraing United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Union St. Gilloise and 71% for Seraing United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Seraing United in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Seraing United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 50% of Seraing United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 71% of Seraing United's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Seraing United tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Seraing United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Seraing United 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.42 xG and Seraing United 0.99 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Seraing United attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 68% | Draw 19% | Seraing United 13%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 62%, Seraing United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Seraing United's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.