Union St. Gilloise 3-2 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
RWDM travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RWDM — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
RWDM's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and RWDM's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, RWDM 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Union St. Gilloise 3–2 RWDM — a Union St. Gilloise win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
RWDM trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 68% and RWDM 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | RWDM 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.67 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.203 / defence 0.846 | RWDM attack 0.791 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.212. RWDM's defence rating of 1.369 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union St. Gilloise's projected output up. RWDM's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 56 games and RWDM's last 22.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 17% | RWDM 8%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.32 | Draw 5.91 | RWDM 13.18. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (76%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and RWDM's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 70% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 17% | RWDM 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.67 / RWDM 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.203 / def 0.846 | RWDM attack 0.791 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.81
RWDM xG
53%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 2 RWDM.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 76% chance of winning, RWDM a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.20x the league average against RWDM's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 56 games and RWDM's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
76%
1.32
17%
5.91
8%
13.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.49
0.81
RWDM xG
1.32
76%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
13.18
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
7%
14.50
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
191.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.81 for RWDM, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 54 games, going 37W 11D 6L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, RWDM sit at 1.67 PPG from 54 outings (26W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of RWDM — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 20W 3D 4L across their last 27 home games, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, RWDM have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 27 away games (11W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.63 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; RWDM in 63%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
RWDM
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and RWDM in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 11D 6L in their last 54 games (2.26 PPG), while RWDM have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or RWDM away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.33 PPG; RWDM away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and RWDM?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 2, RWDM have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2024: Union St. Gilloise 3-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and RWDM?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 59%, RWDM 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Union St. Gilloise and 70% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and RWDM matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 70% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 70% of RWDM's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 63% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out RWDM 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat RWDM 3-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.67 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. RWDM outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against RWDM attack 0.79 / defence 1.37, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 17% | RWDM 8%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, RWDM 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.