Union St. Gilloise 1-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OH Leuven — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OH Leuven in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Union St. Gilloise, 1 for OH Leuven and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
OH Leuven trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 54% and OH Leuven 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 60% | OH Leuven 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.65 xG and OH Leuven 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.135 / defence 0.712 | OH Leuven attack 1.089 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.361. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Union St. Gilloise games / 55 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 51% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 24%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | OH Leuven 4.17. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 60% | OH Leuven 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 51% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.65 / OH Leuven 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.135 / def 0.712 | OH Leuven attack 1.089 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.05
OH Leuven xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 51% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 0 | OH Leuven 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.14x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.90
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.71
1.05
OH Leuven xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
5%
22.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.05 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 36W 10D 9L from 55 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 20L across 55 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 16W 5D 6L from 27 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 7W 10D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.51 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 65%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 36W 10D 9L in their last 55 games (2.15 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or OH Leuven away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.96 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, OH Leuven have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 52%, OH Leuven 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Union St. Gilloise and 67% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 70% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 67% of OH Leuven's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out OH Leuven 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.65 xG and OH Leuven 1.05 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OH Leuven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.14 / defence 0.71 against OH Leuven attack 1.09 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 51% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 24%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 60%, OH Leuven 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
OH Leuven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.