Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host Kortrijk at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Kortrijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 3–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus Kortrijk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 51% | Kortrijk 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Kortrijk 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.983 / defence 0.809 | Kortrijk attack 0.976 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.118. Data: 37 Union St. Gilloise games / 37 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 23%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Kortrijk 4.35. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Kortrijk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.43 / Kortrijk 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.983 / def 0.809 | Kortrijk attack 0.976 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Kortrijk xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 50% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Record (2 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 0.98x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.65
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.32
0.88
Kortrijk xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.88 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 23W 7D 7L from 37 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 16L across 37 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 6D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.19 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 23W 7D 7L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Kortrijk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.83 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 44%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 33% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 50% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 33% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Kortrijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Kortrijk 0.88 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Kortrijk attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 23%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 51%, Kortrijk 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.