Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Joseph Mariën, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Joseph Mariën this season.
Gent have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Gent's 2.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Gent — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 55% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 70% | Gent 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.61 xG and Gent 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.299 / defence 1.013 | Gent attack 0.763 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.527. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Union St. Gilloise games / 20 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 47% | Draw 25% | Gent 28%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Gent 3.57. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Gent 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 47% | Draw 25% | Gent 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.61 / Gent 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.299 / def 1.013 | Gent attack 0.763 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.527 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gent xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Gent.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 47% chance of winning, Gent a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Gent (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.30x the league average against Gent's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (0.76x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.06
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.79
1.18
Gent xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.18 for Gent, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 20 games, going 15W 1D 4L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Gent — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 7W 0D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gent's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.65 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 15W 1D 4L in their last 20 games (2.30 PPG), while Gent have gone 10W 3D 7L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.10 PPG; Gent away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Gent in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 50%, Gent 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Union St. Gilloise) and 40% (Gent). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gent in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 40% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 40% of Gent's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gent in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise and Gent finished level at 0-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.61 xG and Gent 1.18 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gent landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against Gent attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 47% | Draw 25% | Gent 28%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 70%, Gent 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gent's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.