Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Cercle Brugge.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Joseph Marien plays host to Union St. Gilloise versus Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Cercle Brugge have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Union St. Gilloise. A 1.50 PPG lead over Cercle Brugge (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union St. Gilloise lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cercle Brugge half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Cercle Brugge 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 50% | Cercle Brugge 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.77 xG and Cercle Brugge 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.373 / defence 0.681 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.932 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.049. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Union St. Gilloise games / 44 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 12%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Cercle Brugge 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 20% | Cercle Brugge 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.77 / Cercle Brugge 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.373 / def 0.681 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.932 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Cercle Brugge xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge?
Record (8 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 2 | Cercle Brugge 2W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Cercle Brugge's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Cercle Brugge's attack (0.93x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
62%
1.60
26%
3.90
12%
8.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.43
0.67
Cercle Brugge xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
8.34
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
2%
48.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.67 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 52 games, going 33W 13D 6L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cercle Brugge sit at 1.10 PPG from 52 outings (13W 18D 21L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 19W 4D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Cercle Brugge have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.25 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge in 62%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 33W 13D 6L in their last 52 games (2.15 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.44 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Cercle Brugge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cercle Brugge in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
2
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, Cercle Brugge have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Cercle Brugge 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 36%, Cercle Brugge 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Union St. Gilloise) and 52% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Cercle Brugge in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Cercle Brugge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 56% of Cercle Brugge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 52% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cercle Brugge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Cercle Brugge 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.77 xG and Cercle Brugge 0.67 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.37 / defence 0.68 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 50%, Cercle Brugge 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.