Standard Liege 0-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Maurice Dufrasnestadion to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Standard Liege have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zulte Waregem are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Standard Liege have won 2, Zulte Waregem 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 40% versus Zulte Waregem 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 35% | Zulte Waregem 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.74 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.000 / defence 1.062 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.075 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.064. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Standard Liege games / 14 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 4.00. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Standard Liege 1.74 / Zulte Waregem 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.000 / def 1.062 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.075 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Zulte Waregem xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Standard Liege 0 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 48% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
Record (4 meetings): Standard Liege 2W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (1.00) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.82
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.95
1.21
Zulte Waregem xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
4%
22.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.21 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 11W 15D 17L from 43 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 10L across 43 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zulte Waregem by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 9W 7D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.81 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.33 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 48%, Zulte Waregem 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Standard Liege) and 62% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Standard Liege's games and 67% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Standard Liege's recent games and 62% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liege's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege and Zulte Waregem finished level at 0-0 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.74 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.21 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 35%, Zulte Waregem 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.