Standard Liege 1-3 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Standard Liege welcome OH Leuven to Stade Maurice Dufrasne. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
OH Leuven — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Standard Liege) versus 0.80 (OH Leuven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 53% versus OH Leuven 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 47% | OH Leuven 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.85 xG and OH Leuven 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.006 / defence 0.957 | OH Leuven attack 1.125 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.289. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Standard Liege games / 38 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | OH Leuven 3.45. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | OH Leuven 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Standard Liege 1.85 / OH Leuven 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.006 / def 0.957 | OH Leuven attack 1.125 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.39
OH Leuven xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs OH Leuven kick off?
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Standard Liege 1 - 3 OH Leuven.
Where is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven part of?
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 48% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Standard Liege and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and OH Leuven in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 1.01x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
48%
2.06
23%
4.42
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
3.24
1.39
OH Leuven xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.39 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 10D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.05 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Standard Liege's home form reads 4W 6D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.39 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or OH Leuven away?
OH Leuven's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 0.95 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Standard Liege have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Standard Liege's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Standard Liege
3
Draws
5
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 2, OH Leuven have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Standard Liege 2-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 53%, OH Leuven 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Standard Liege) and 63% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Standard Liege's games and 68% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Standard Liege's recent games and 63% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Standard Liege 1-3 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.85 xG and OH Leuven 1.39 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 0.9 short of their projected output. OH Leuven outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against OH Leuven attack 1.12 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 47%, OH Leuven 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.05 PPG, OH Leuven 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.