Standard Liege 0-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Standard Liege take on Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Standard Liege welcome Antwerp to Stade Maurice Dufrasne. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Standard Liege's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Antwerp — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Standard Liege) versus 1.40 (Antwerp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antwerp have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Standard Liege.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Antwerp winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Antwerp have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 48% versus Antwerp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 45% | Antwerp 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.89 xG and Antwerp 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.719 / defence 0.932 | Antwerp attack 0.877 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.100. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Standard Liege games / 59 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 31% | Draw 38% | Antwerp 31%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Antwerp 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Standard Liege 50% | Antwerp 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 31% | Draw 38% | Antwerp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Standard Liege 0.89 / Antwerp 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.719 / def 0.932 | Antwerp attack 0.877 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Antwerp xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Antwerp kick off?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Standard Liege 0 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Standard Liege vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Antwerp part of?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 31% chance of winning, Antwerp a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Standard Liege and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Record (4 meetings): Standard Liege 0W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 4W.
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.72) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
38%
2.65
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.79
0.90
Antwerp xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.1 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.90 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 18W 23D 28L from 69 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 22L across 69 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.12 PPG, Antwerp on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 13W 11D 10L from 34 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 10W 11D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.57 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 18W 23D 28L in their last 69 games (1.12 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 19D 22L in their last 69 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Antwerp away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.47 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Standard Liege have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Antwerp have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Standard Liege 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 38%, Antwerp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Standard Liege) and 41% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 38% of games; Antwerp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 50% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Standard Liege's recent games and 41% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Antwerp tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liege's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 30, as Standard Liege and Antwerp drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.89 xG and Antwerp 0.90 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Antwerp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.72 / defence 0.93 against Antwerp attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 31% | Draw 38% | Antwerp 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 45%, Antwerp 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.12 PPG, Antwerp 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.