St. Truiden 0-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Kortrijk travel to Stadion Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk — All Games: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kortrijk are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 75% versus Kortrijk 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 75% | Kortrijk 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.17 xG and Kortrijk 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.048 / defence 1.305 | Kortrijk attack 0.655 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.558. Data: 4 St. Truiden games / 4 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 40%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Kortrijk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 75% | Kortrijk 25%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG St. Truiden 1.17 / Kortrijk 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.048 / def 1.305 | Kortrijk attack 0.655 / def 1.174 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.558 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Kortrijk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
St. Truiden 0 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 32% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (1.05) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
32%
3.09
28%
3.63
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.50
1.33
Kortrijk xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.33 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kortrijk by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Kortrijk in 25%.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have St. Truiden or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 75%, Kortrijk 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (St. Truiden) and 25% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 25% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of St. Truiden's recent games and 25% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat St. Truiden 0-2 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.17 xG and Kortrijk 1.33 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.05 / defence 1.30 against Kortrijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.17, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 32% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 40%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 75%, Kortrijk 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kortrijk's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.