St. Truiden 2-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Genk at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genk — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Genk in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 48% versus Genk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 0.93 xG and Genk 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.655 / defence 0.903 | Genk attack 1.282 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.270. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 St. Truiden games / 61 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 22% | Draw 29% | Genk 48%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Genk 2.08. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 30% | Genk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 22% | Draw 29% | Genk 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG St. Truiden 0.93 / Genk 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.655 / def 0.903 | Genk attack 1.282 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Genk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Genk xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Genk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
St. Truiden 2 - 2 Genk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Genk part of?
St. Truiden vs Genk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 22% chance of winning, Genk a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St. Truiden and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Genk 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Genk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.66x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
22%
4.48
29%
3.42
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.40
1.47
Genk xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
5%
19.52
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.47 for Genk, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 61 games, going 24W 14D 23L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.92 PPG from 61 outings (36W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 11W 6D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.11 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 14D 23L in their last 61 games (1.41 PPG), while Genk have gone 36W 9D 16L in their last 61 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.30 PPG; Genk away: 1.50 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Genk in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 57%, Genk 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St. Truiden) and 60% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of St. Truiden's matches and 60% of Genk's.
Do St. Truiden and Genk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genk in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Genk finished level at 2-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 0.93 xG and Genk 1.47 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.66 / defence 0.90 against Genk attack 1.28 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 22% | Draw 29% | Genk 48%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Genk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.