St. Truiden 1-1 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Club Brugge KV make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Thursday 19 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Club Brugge KV's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Club Brugge KV have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.30 for Club Brugge KV. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — St. Truiden lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Club Brugge KV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Club Brugge KV half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 48% versus Club Brugge KV 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Club Brugge KV 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.36 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.847 / defence 0.839 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.033 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.367. Data: 54 St. Truiden games / 54 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 27% | Club Brugge KV 33%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Club Brugge KV 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 40% | Club Brugge KV 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 27% | Club Brugge KV 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG St. Truiden 1.36 / Club Brugge KV 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.847 / def 0.839 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.033 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Club Brugge KV xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 19 January 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Club Brugge KV.
Where is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV part of?
St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 41% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | Club Brugge KV 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.85) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (1.03x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.76
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.55
1.19
Club Brugge KV xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.19 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 12D 19L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 2.04 PPG from 54 outings (32W 14D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.92 points per game from 26 outings (15W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.94 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 12D 19L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 32W 14D 8L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.35 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.92 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Club Brugge KV have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 2-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 62%, Club Brugge KV 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (St. Truiden) and 62% (Club Brugge KV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of St. Truiden's games and 58% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of St. Truiden's matches and 62% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.36 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.19 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.85 / defence 0.84 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 41% | Draw 27% | Club Brugge KV 33%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Club Brugge KV 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.