St. Truiden 1-2 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Stayen plays host to St. Truiden versus Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 2W 2D 5L at Stadion Stayen — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cercle Brugge (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Cercle Brugge have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.38 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for St. Truiden, 0.80 for Cercle Brugge — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 89% of relevant games, Cercle Brugge in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Cercle Brugge half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 65% and Cercle Brugge 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | Cercle Brugge 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.17 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.919 / defence 1.212 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.859 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.482. Data: 17 St. Truiden games / 17 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 25% | Cercle Brugge 46%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Cercle Brugge 2.17. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 89% | Cercle Brugge 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 25% | Cercle Brugge 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG St. Truiden 1.17 / Cercle Brugge 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.919 / def 1.212 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.859 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Cercle Brugge xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 Cercle Brugge.
Where is St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge part of?
St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 29% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.92) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cercle Brugge's attack (0.86x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
29%
3.46
25%
3.97
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.71
1.54
Cercle Brugge xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.54 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 6W 3D 8L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for St. Truiden against 0.94 for Cercle Brugge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That actually lags their 1.24 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.94 PPG overall record — Cercle Brugge travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.18 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Cercle Brugge in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Cercle Brugge's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 0.62 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Cercle Brugge have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for St. Truiden, 75% for Cercle Brugge — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for St. Truiden and 50% for Cercle Brugge. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of St. Truiden's games and 75% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of St. Truiden's matches and 50% of Cercle Brugge's.
Do St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cercle Brugge edge out St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.17 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.54 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 29% | Draw 25% | Cercle Brugge 46%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Cercle Brugge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.24 PPG, Cercle Brugge 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.