St. Truiden 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.40 PPG, Antwerp 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antwerp have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for St. Truiden.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Antwerp have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 69% and Antwerp 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 60% | Antwerp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Antwerp 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.032 / defence 1.217 | Antwerp attack 0.640 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.100. Data: 42 St. Truiden games / 42 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 23%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 4.35. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Antwerp lead the H2H ledger, but St. Truiden carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Antwerp 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG St. Truiden 1.31 / Antwerp 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.032 / def 1.217 | Antwerp attack 0.640 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Antwerp xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 46% chance of winning, Antwerp a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Record (7 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 3 | Antwerp 4W.
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Antwerp (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.19
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.17
0.86
Antwerp xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.86 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 15W 14D 19L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 16L across 48 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.23 PPG, Antwerp on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 5W 12D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Antwerp in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 14W 18D 16L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.58 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 71%, Antwerp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (St. Truiden) and 25% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of St. Truiden's games and 54% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of St. Truiden's recent games and 25% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Antwerp 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Antwerp 0.86 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Antwerp attack 0.64 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 23%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Antwerp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.23 PPG, Antwerp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.