St. Truiden 0-3 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Anderlecht travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 2.00 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 54% versus Anderlecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Anderlecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.40 xG and Anderlecht 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.954 / defence 0.966 | Anderlecht attack 0.991 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.120. Data: 37 St. Truiden games / 37 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 44% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 29%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Anderlecht 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 60% | Anderlecht 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 44% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG St. Truiden 1.40 / Anderlecht 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.954 / def 0.966 | Anderlecht attack 0.991 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Anderlecht xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 0 - 3 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 44% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.69
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.47
1.07
Anderlecht xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.07 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 9D 13L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.84 PPG from 37 outings (19W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.46 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.92 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 19W 11D 7L in their last 37 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.39 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.61 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 72%, Anderlecht 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (St. Truiden) and 56% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 33%; Anderlecht in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of St. Truiden's games and 44% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of St. Truiden's matches and 56% of Anderlecht's.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 0-3 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.40 xG and Anderlecht 1.07 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Anderlecht outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Anderlecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 44% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 29%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Anderlecht 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.46 PPG, Anderlecht 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.