SK Beveren vs Lommel United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 10W 0D 0L at Freethiel Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SK Beveren at 1.90 PPG versus Lommel United's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lommel United trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 51% versus Lommel United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 65% | Lommel United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.04 xG and Lommel United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / defence 0.986 | Lommel United attack 0.792 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 SK Beveren games / 5 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 34% | Draw 30% | Lommel United 36%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Lommel United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 30% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 34% | Draw 30% | Lommel United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG SK Beveren 1.04 / Lommel United 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / def 0.986 | Lommel United attack 0.792 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lommel United xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 34% chance of winning, Lommel United a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Record (10 meetings): SK Beveren 4W | Draws 4 | Lommel United 2W.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.80) and Lommel United's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.12
1.08
Lommel United xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.08 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 30W 4D 3L from 37 games, a 2.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 10L across 37 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 17W 1D 0L from 18 games — 2.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 9W 5D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.81 scored and 1.30 conceded. Lommel United's attacking output running into SK Beveren's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 games (2.54 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.89 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.78 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lommel United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 39%, Lommel United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 61% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 67% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SK Beveren's matches and 61% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.