SK Beveren vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Freethiel Stadion to face SK Beveren in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Freethiel Stadion, SK Beveren have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 0.60 PPG lead over Kortrijk (1.00 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — SK Beveren have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Kortrijk in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SK Beveren 2W, Kortrijk 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 54% versus Kortrijk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 68% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.79 xG and Kortrijk 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.861 / defence 0.997 | Kortrijk attack 0.584 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.370. Data: 10 SK Beveren games / 10 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 61% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 16%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Kortrijk 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 30% | Kortrijk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 61% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG SK Beveren 1.79 / Kortrijk 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.861 / def 0.997 | Kortrijk attack 0.584 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Kortrijk xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Kortrijk kick off?
SK Beveren vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Kortrijk part of?
SK Beveren vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 61% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SK Beveren and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Kortrijk?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 2W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Kortrijk in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SK Beveren's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.58x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.39
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.59
0.80
Kortrijk xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
3%
36.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.80 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 29W 5D 7L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 21W 5D 15L from 41 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.60 PPG from 20 outings (17W 1D 2L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.46 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 29W 5D 7L in their last 41 games (2.24 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 5D 15L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Kortrijk away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.60 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.10 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Kortrijk?
From 3 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Kortrijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Kortrijk?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 45%, Kortrijk 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (SK Beveren) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 45% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of SK Beveren's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Kortrijk tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.