Patro Eisden 1-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Quarter-finals sees Beerschot VA travel to Patrostadion to take on Patro Eisden. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Patro Eisden haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Patrostadion, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beerschot VA haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Beerschot VA in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Patro Eisden, 2 for Beerschot VA and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Beerschot VA trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 66% and Beerschot VA 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 57% | Beerschot VA 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.14 xG and Beerschot VA 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Beerschot VA attack 0.991 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 0 Patro Eisden games / 30 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 2.17. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Patro Eisden (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 80% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Quarter-finals | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Patro Eisden 1.14 / Beerschot VA 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Beerschot VA attack 0.991 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Beerschot VA xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Patro Eisden 1 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA part of?
Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA is a Quarter-finals fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 29% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
Record (4 meetings): Patro Eisden 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 2W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 0.85x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.90
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.65
1.50
Beerschot VA xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.50 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 11D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. Patro Eisden haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 0.66 PPG from 35 outings (5W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. Beerschot VA haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Patro Eisden's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.11 points per game from 18 outings (0W 2D 16L). That's a step down from their 0.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beerschot VA's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.03 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Pre-Season
Beerschot VA
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 17W 11D 7L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 5W 8D 22L in their last 35 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Beerschot VA away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.78 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2026, when Beerschot VA won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 2, Beerschot VA have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beerschot VA 3-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 72%, Beerschot VA 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Patro Eisden and 67% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Patro Eisden's games and 50% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Patro Eisden's matches and 67% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Patrostadion, Quarter-finals, as Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.14 xG and Beerschot VA 1.50 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 57%, Beerschot VA 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.