Oostende 1-6 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Oostende welcome Union St. Gilloise to Diaz Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oostende stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oostende at Diaz Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Oostende's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Oostende have won 0, Union St. Gilloise 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Oostende trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 49% versus Union St. Gilloise 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 53% | Union St. Gilloise 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 1.26 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.851 / defence 1.017 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.181 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.459. Data: 45 Oostende games / 45 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 27% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 49%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.04. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Oostende 60% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 27% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Oostende 1.26 / Union St. Gilloise 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.851 / def 1.017 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.181 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Union St. Gilloise xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Oostende 1 - 6 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 27% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Oostende and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Oostende 0W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Oostende and Union St. Gilloise in?
Oostende (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oostende's attack at 0.85x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Oostende's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
27%
3.64
23%
4.26
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Oostende xG
Total xG
3.01
1.75
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
5%
20.98
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Oostende and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Oostende and 1.75 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oostende come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 9D 23L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.09 PPG from 45 outings (29W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Oostende — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oostende's home form reads 7W 3D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 2.32 points per game from 22 outings (16W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oostende are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.98 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 13W 9D 23L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 7D 9L in their last 45 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 1.09 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Oostende or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oostende have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oostende's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oostende
1
Draws
3
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2022, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 59%, Union St. Gilloise 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Oostende and 64% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 46%; Oostende have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Oostende's recent matches and 46% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Oostende's matches and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Oostende and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Oostende.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Oostende 1-6 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 1.26 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.75 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 27% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 49%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 53%, Union St. Gilloise 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oostende (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.