OH Leuven 2-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OH Leuven host Standard Liege at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's home record at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.56 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OH Leuven at 1.20 PPG versus Standard Liege's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OH Leuven register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Standard Liege in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
OH Leuven trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Standard Liege trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 72% and Standard Liege 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 61% | Standard Liege 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.29 xG and Standard Liege 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.808 / defence 1.331 | Standard Liege attack 0.894 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.554. Standard Liege bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 OH Leuven games / 18 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 27% | Draw 23% | Standard Liege 51%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Standard Liege 1.96. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 70% | Standard Liege 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 27% | Draw 23% | Standard Liege 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG OH Leuven 1.29 / Standard Liege 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.808 / def 1.331 | Standard Liege attack 0.894 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.554 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Standard Liege xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Standard Liege kick off?
OH Leuven vs Standard Liege kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
OH Leuven 2 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is OH Leuven vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Standard Liege part of?
OH Leuven vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 27% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both OH Leuven and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Standard Liege in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.81) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
27%
3.74
23%
4.40
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
3.14
1.85
Standard Liege xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
4%
23.76
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.85 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 7D 7L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege's form line: 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.06 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Standard Liege have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.17 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Standard Liege in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Standard Liege away?
Standard Liege's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.22 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OH Leuven and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OH Leuven
3
Draws
2
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 5, Standard Liege have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Standard Liege 2-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Standard Liege?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OH Leuven at 67%, Standard Liege at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for OH Leuven and 67% for Standard Liege. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of OH Leuven's games and 67% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of OH Leuven's matches and 67% of Standard Liege's.
Do OH Leuven and Standard Liege tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Standard Liege 2-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.29 xG and Standard Liege 1.85 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Standard Liege landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 1.33 against Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 27% | Draw 23% | Standard Liege 51%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 61%, Standard Liege 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.06 PPG, Standard Liege 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.