OH Leuven 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. St. Truiden's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of OH Leuven's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for OH Leuven, 0 for St. Truiden and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 64% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 61% | St. Truiden 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.15 xG and St. Truiden 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.970 / defence 1.035 | St. Truiden attack 0.978 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.363. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 OH Leuven games / 56 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 31% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 42%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | St. Truiden 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 50% | St. Truiden 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 31% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG OH Leuven 1.15 / St. Truiden 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.970 / def 1.035 | St. Truiden attack 0.978 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.38
St. Truiden xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kick off?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
OH Leuven 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden part of?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 31% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OH Leuven and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): OH Leuven 0W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.71
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.53
1.38
St. Truiden xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.38 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 18W 17D 21L from 56 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 20L across 56 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OH Leuven on 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.44 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.67 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 59%, St. Truiden 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (OH Leuven) and 33% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 44%; OH Leuven have failed to score in 26% of games; St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 37% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of OH Leuven's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and St. Truiden tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as OH Leuven and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.15 xG and St. Truiden 1.38 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against St. Truiden attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 31% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 42%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 61%, St. Truiden 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.