OH Leuven 4-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as OH Leuven welcome St. Truiden to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (OH Leuven) versus 1.20 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 73% and St. Truiden 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 46% | St. Truiden 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 0.90 xG and St. Truiden 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.752 / defence 1.051 | St. Truiden attack 0.729 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.473. OH Leuven's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 OH Leuven games / 11 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 29% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 41%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 80% | St. Truiden 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 29% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG OH Leuven 0.90 / St. Truiden 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.752 / def 1.051 | St. Truiden attack 0.729 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.13
St. Truiden xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kick off?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
OH Leuven 4 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden part of?
OH Leuven vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 29% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both OH Leuven and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.30
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.03
1.13
St. Truiden xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.13 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 1W 7D 3L from 11 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 4L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.36 PPG overall record — St. Truiden travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 1W 7D 3L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.20 PPG; St. Truiden away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 80%, St. Truiden 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (OH Leuven) and 40% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of OH Leuven's games and 40% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of OH Leuven's recent games and 40% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and St. Truiden tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OH Leuven run riot with a 4-1 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 4-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 0.90 xG and St. Truiden 1.13 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 29% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 41%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 46%, St. Truiden 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.