OH Leuven 1-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 0W 2D 0L across 2 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.00. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 0.81 xG and Charleroi 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.980 / defence 1.032 | Charleroi attack 0.984 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 0.805 / away 1.760. Data: 2 OH Leuven games / 2 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 13% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 57%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 7.69 | Draw 3.45 | Charleroi 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 13% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG OH Leuven 0.81 / Charleroi 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.980 / def 1.032 | Charleroi attack 0.984 / def 1.031 | league avg home 0.805 / away 1.760 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Charleroi xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 1 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 13% chance of winning, Charleroi a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.98x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.98x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
13%
7.43
29%
3.41
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.60
1.79
Charleroi xG
7.43
13%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
2%
44.40
25%
3.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.79 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Charleroi in 0%.
Defensively: Charleroi in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have OH Leuven or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Charleroi in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 0% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of OH Leuven's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as OH Leuven and Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 0.81 xG and Charleroi 1.79 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Charleroi attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 13% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 57%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 0%, Charleroi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charleroi shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.