Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Charleroi travel to Soevereinstadion to take on Lommel United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Lommel United have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United at Soevereinstadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lommel United 2.00 PPG, Charleroi 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 64% versus Charleroi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 62% | Charleroi 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.21 xG and Charleroi 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.864 / defence 1.150 | Charleroi attack 0.961 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.482. Data: 1 Lommel United games / 31 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 26% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 45%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.22. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 60% | Charleroi 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 26% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Lommel United 1.21 / Charleroi 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.864 / def 1.150 | Charleroi attack 0.961 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Charleroi xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Charleroi kick off?
Lommel United vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Lommel United 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Lommel United vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Charleroi part of?
Lommel United vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 26% chance of winning, Charleroi a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lommel United and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Charleroi in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lommel United's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
26%
3.80
28%
3.55
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.85
1.64
Charleroi xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.64 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 20W 10D 9L from 39 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 17L across 39 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 11W 3D 5L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 2D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.28 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 games (1.79 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Charleroi away?
Lommel United's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.89 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Charleroi runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Lommel United
0
Draws
1
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Charleroi?
From 1 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 0, Charleroi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 63%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Lommel United) and 37% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 32%; Charleroi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Lommel United's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Lommel United's recent games and 37% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Charleroi tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Lommel United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.21 xG and Charleroi 1.64 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 26% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 45%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 62%, Charleroi 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.