KVC Westerlo 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Charleroi travel to Het Kuipje to take on KVC Westerlo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KVC Westerlo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KVC Westerlo have posted 4W 2D 4L at Het Kuipje — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: KVC Westerlo 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Charleroi have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against KVC Westerlo's 0 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Charleroi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KVC Westerlo 57% versus Charleroi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 54% | Charleroi 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 0.98 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 0.874 / defence 1.017 | Charleroi attack 1.022 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.379. Data: 55 KVC Westerlo games / 55 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 2.13. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: KVC Westerlo 20% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG KVC Westerlo 0.98 / Charleroi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 0.874 / def 1.017 | Charleroi attack 1.022 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
KVC Westerlo 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi part of?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 25% chance of winning, Charleroi a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both KVC Westerlo and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Record (7 meetings): KVC Westerlo 0W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 6W.
What form are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi in?
KVC Westerlo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KVC Westerlo's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus KVC Westerlo's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
25%
3.93
27%
3.68
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
2.41
1.43
Charleroi xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
6%
16.49
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.43 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, KVC Westerlo have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 19D 25L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 26W 16D 23L from 65 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: KVC Westerlo on 1.26 PPG, Charleroi on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, KVC Westerlo have posted 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (12W 10D 10L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 7D 15L from 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.40 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 26W 16D 23L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or Charleroi away?
KVC Westerlo's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.44 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KVC Westerlo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
KVC Westerlo's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
KVC Westerlo
1
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, KVC Westerlo have won 3, Charleroi have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KVC Westerlo 56%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (KVC Westerlo) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KVC Westerlo play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of KVC Westerlo's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of KVC Westerlo's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KVC Westerlo and Charleroi tend to score early?
KVC Westerlo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KVC Westerlo defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 2-1 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 0.98 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. KVC Westerlo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 25% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 47%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a KVC Westerlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 54%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.26 PPG, Charleroi 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.