Kortrijk 2-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kortrijk welcome Union St. Gilloise to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kortrijk, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus Union St. Gilloise 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 38% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.75 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.949 / defence 1.172 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.356 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.325. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Kortrijk games / 29 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 12% | Draw 19% | Union St. Gilloise 69%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 8.33 | Draw 5.26 | Union St. Gilloise 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Union St. Gilloise 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 12% | Draw 19% | Union St. Gilloise 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Kortrijk 0.75 / Union St. Gilloise 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.949 / def 1.172 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.356 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Union St. Gilloise xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Kortrijk 2 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 12% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 69% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.95) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
12%
8.29
19%
5.24
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.85
2.11
Union St. Gilloise xG
8.29
12%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
1%
68.06
33%
3.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Kortrijk and 2.11 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 9W 10D 10L from 29 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 20W 4D 5L across 29 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 5W 4D 5L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 11W 2D 1L across 14 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.14 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 9W 10D 10L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 20W 4D 5L in their last 29 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.36 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Union St. Gilloise 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Kortrijk) and 64% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 43% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Kortrijk's recent games and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Kortrijk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 2-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.75 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.11 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 2.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.36 / defence 0.70, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 12% | Draw 19% | Union St. Gilloise 69%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 38%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.