Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Kortrijk welcome Union St. Gilloise to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporenstadion than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 7 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Kortrijk.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 44% versus Union St. Gilloise 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 55% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.682 / defence 1.256 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.301 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.083. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Kortrijk games / 54 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 13% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 60%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 7.69 | Draw 3.70 | Union St. Gilloise 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 13% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Kortrijk 0.73 / Union St. Gilloise 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.682 / def 1.256 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.301 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Union St. Gilloise xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Kortrijk 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 13% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 60% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (7 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 7W.
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.68) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
13%
7.87
27%
3.66
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.50
1.77
Union St. Gilloise xG
7.87
13%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
2%
46.18
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.77 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 15W 11D 36L from 62 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 9L across 62 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 10W 4D 17L from 31 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 12D 5L across 31 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.84 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 15W 11D 36L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 34W 19D 9L in their last 62 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.10 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Union St. Gilloise 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Kortrijk) and 52% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 58% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Kortrijk's recent games and 52% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Kortrijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 1-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.68 / defence 1.26 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 13% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 60%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 55%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.