Kortrijk 0-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Kortrijk welcome Standard Liege to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporenstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Standard Liege's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Kortrijk) versus 0.90 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kortrijk, 0 for Standard Liege and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus Standard Liege 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 39% | Standard Liege 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.27 xG and Standard Liege 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 1.013 / defence 1.222 | Standard Liege attack 0.681 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.316. Data: 31 Kortrijk games / 31 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 40% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 31%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Standard Liege 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Standard Liege 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 40% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Kortrijk 1.27 / Standard Liege 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 1.013 / def 1.222 | Standard Liege attack 0.681 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Standard Liege xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Kortrijk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege part of?
Kortrijk vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 40% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kortrijk and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Standard Liege?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 1 | Standard Liege 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Standard Liege in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 1.01x the league average against Standard Liege's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.50
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Standard Liege xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.09 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 9W 10D 12L from 31 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 14L across 31 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.19 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.97 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 games (1.19 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 8W 9D 14L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Standard Liege away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.27 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kortrijk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Standard Liege?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 53%, Standard Liege 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kortrijk) and 47% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 53% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kortrijk's recent games and 47% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.27 xG and Standard Liege 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.01 / defence 1.22 against Standard Liege attack 0.68 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 40% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 31%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 39%, Standard Liege 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.19 PPG, Standard Liege 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.