Kortrijk 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host St. Truiden at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 5W 0D 5L at Guldensporenstadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
St. Truiden — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Kortrijk have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
St. Truiden have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Kortrijk's 1 victories.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with St. Truiden winning.
It is worth noting that St. Truiden have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 42% versus St. Truiden 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | St. Truiden 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.75 xG and St. Truiden 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.787 / defence 0.949 | St. Truiden attack 0.869 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.094. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Kortrijk games / 35 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 57% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | St. Truiden 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kortrijk (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
St. Truiden lead the H2H ledger, but Kortrijk carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | St. Truiden 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 57% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Kortrijk 1.75 / St. Truiden 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.787 / def 0.949 | St. Truiden attack 0.869 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.90
St. Truiden xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Kortrijk 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden part of?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 57% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kortrijk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
Record (6 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 4W.
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.17
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.65
0.90
St. Truiden xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
30.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.90 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 7D 24L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden's form line: 11W 16D 16L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.00 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (7W 3D 11L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 2W 8D 11L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.21 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 7D 24L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or St. Truiden away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.14 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
3
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, St. Truiden have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, St. Truiden 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 57% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 33% of games; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 62% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 57% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk and St. Truiden finished level at 1-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.75 xG and St. Truiden 0.90 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against St. Truiden attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 57% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 19%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 51%, St. Truiden 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.00 PPG, St. Truiden 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.