Kortrijk 4-2 Lommel United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kortrijk face Lommel United.

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Analysis & Preview

Lommel United travel to Guldensporenstadion to take on Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Kortrijk — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Lommel United have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kortrijk 1.60 PPG, Lommel United 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Kortrijk, 0 for Lommel United and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Kortrijk 1–0 Lommel United — a Kortrijk win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Kortrijk in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Lommel United in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 39% versus Lommel United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 48% | Lommel United 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.42 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.786 / defence 1.130 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and Lommel United's last 0.

Result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 30%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.28 | Draw 3.80 | Lommel United 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 50% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 60% (last 10 away games).

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