Kortrijk 0-4 Gent – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gent at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Gent travel to Guldensporenstadion to take on Kortrijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gent stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gent have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Gent's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Kortrijk's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kortrijk, 0 for Gent and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Gent trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 56% versus Gent 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 46% | Gent 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.84 xG and Gent 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.657 / defence 1.207 | Gent attack 1.015 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.435. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gent's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Kortrijk games / 50 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 18% | Draw 23% | Gent 59%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Gent 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Gent (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Gent 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 18% | Draw 23% | Gent 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Kortrijk 0.84 / Gent 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.657 / def 1.207 | Gent attack 1.015 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Gent (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Gent xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Gent kick off?
Kortrijk vs Gent kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Gent?
Kortrijk 0 - 4 Gent.
Where is Kortrijk vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Gent part of?
Kortrijk vs Gent is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 18% chance of winning, Gent a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kortrijk and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Gent?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 1 | Gent 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Gent in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Gent (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.66) and Gent's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
18%
5.65
23%
4.30
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.60
1.76
Gent xG
5.65
18%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
3%
32.77
25%
3.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.76 for Gent, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Gent?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 13D 25L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent's form line: 28W 10D 12L from 50 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gent are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
On the road, Gent have gone 13W 7D 5L from 25 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.60 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Gent in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Gent in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 25L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Gent have gone 28W 10D 12L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.96 PPG; Gent away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Gent in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Gent runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Gent won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Gent specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
1
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Gent?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Gent have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Gent 1-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 52%, Gent 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kortrijk) and 44% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 44%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 44% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Kortrijk's recent games and 44% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Gent tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gent in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gent run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Kortrijk 0-4 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.84 xG and Gent 1.76 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gent outscored their 1.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.21 against Gent attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 18% | Draw 23% | Gent 59%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 46%, Gent 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Gent's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.