Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporen Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk at Guldensporen Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Charleroi, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
It is worth noting that Charleroi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 52% | Charleroi 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.88 xG and Charleroi 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.703 / defence 1.338 | Charleroi attack 0.953 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.332. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 2 Kortrijk games / 33 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 19% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 57%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 60% | Charleroi 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 19% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Kortrijk 0.88 / Charleroi 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.703 / def 1.338 | Charleroi attack 0.953 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Guldensporen Stadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 1 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 19% chance of winning, Charleroi a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Record (9 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 6W.
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.70x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.95x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
The sample (2/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
19%
5.18
24%
4.18
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.58
1.70
Charleroi xG
5.18
19%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
4%
28.30
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.70 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 20W 4D 9L from 33 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 13L across 33 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kortrijk by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 13W 1D 2L from 16 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Kortrijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 2D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.30 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 9L in their last 33 games (1.94 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 14W 6D 13L in their last 33 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Kortrijk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 2.50 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Charleroi in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
2
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 56%, Charleroi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kortrijk) and 31% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 38% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Kortrijk's recent games and 31% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Kortrijk 1-3 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.88 xG and Charleroi 1.70 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.34 against Charleroi attack 0.95 / defence 0.78, drawn from 2/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 19% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 57%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 52%, Charleroi 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.