Genk 2-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Zulte Waregem meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Cegeka Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zulte Waregem in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genk, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 8.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 6–2 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 65% and Zulte Waregem 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genk 61% | Zulte Waregem 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.50 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.353 / defence 1.150 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.855 / defence 1.648. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.501. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.648 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Genk games / 24 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 19% | Zulte Waregem 22%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Zulte Waregem 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Genk (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 19% | Zulte Waregem 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG Genk 2.50 / Zulte Waregem 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.353 / def 1.150 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.855 / def 1.648 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Genk (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Zulte Waregem xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Genk vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Genk 2 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Genk vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Genk vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 60% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Genk and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Genk and Zulte Waregem in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.35x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.85x) against Genk's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.35
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Genk xG
Total xG
3.97
1.48
Zulte Waregem xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
8%
12.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
2%
56.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Genk and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Genk and 1.48 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 11L across 23 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Genk against 1.04 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.52 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Genk's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.64 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 2-6 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Genk
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Genk have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Zulte Waregem?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Genk, 73% for Zulte Waregem — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Genk and 73% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Genk's games and 73% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Genk's matches and 73% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Genk and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Zulte Waregem 2-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.50 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.48 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.35 / defence 1.15 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.65, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 60% | Draw 19% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 61%, Zulte Waregem 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.39 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.