Genk 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 4W 0D 2L from 6 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genk at 2.00 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus Union St. Gilloise 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 60% | Union St. Gilloise 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.66 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.233 / defence 1.075 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.002 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.601. Data: 5 Genk games / 6 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 37% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 40%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Genk 33% | Union St. Gilloise 67%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 37% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Genk 1.66 / Union St. Gilloise 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.233 / def 1.075 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.002 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.601 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 37% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.23x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
37%
2.68
23%
4.41
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Genk xG
Total xG
3.38
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
7%
14.98
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Genk and 1.72 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Genk have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 2.00 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Genk's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Union St. Gilloise in 20%.
Defensively: Genk have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Genk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 60%, Union St. Gilloise 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Genk and 60% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Genk's recent matches and 20% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Genk's matches and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.66 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.23 / defence 1.07 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 37% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 40%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 60%, Union St. Gilloise 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 2.00 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genk managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.