Genk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genk face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise 5, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 57% versus Union St. Gilloise 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 57% | Union St. Gilloise 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.982 / defence 1.007 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.067 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.118. Data: 37 Genk games / 37 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 32% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36%. Fair-value odds: Genk 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Union St. Gilloise 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genk 50% | Union St. Gilloise 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 32% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Genk 1.11 / Union St. Gilloise 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.982 / def 1.007 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.067 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Union St. Gilloise xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 32% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (8 meetings): Genk 3W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 5W.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 0.98x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.09
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Genk xG
Total xG
2.31
1.20
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Genk and 1.20 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Genk have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 27W 8D 12L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 29W 13D 5L from 47 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.89 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.22 PPG from 23 outings (16W 3D 4L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 12W 8D 3L from 23 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.83 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 27W 8D 12L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 13D 5L in their last 47 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Genk's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.22 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Genk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 44%, Union St. Gilloise 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Genk) and 44% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genk's recent matches and 48% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Genk's recent games and 44% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.20 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 32% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 57%, Union St. Gilloise 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.89 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.