Genk 0-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Genk welcome St. Truiden to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Genk have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Genk) versus 2.10 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Genk have won 1, St. Truiden 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 58% versus St. Truiden 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 62% | St. Truiden 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.39 xG and St. Truiden 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.328 / defence 0.998 | St. Truiden attack 0.782 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.410. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Genk games / 40 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 30%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | St. Truiden 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Genk 60% | St. Truiden 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Genk 1.39 / St. Truiden 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.328 / def 0.998 | St. Truiden attack 0.782 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Genk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Genk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Genk 0 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Genk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs St. Truiden part of?
Genk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 43% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in?
Genk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.33) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.74
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Genk xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
St. Truiden xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Genk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Genk and 1.10 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Genk have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 20W 6D 14L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden's form line: 17W 9D 14L from 40 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.65 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (13W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 9W 4D 6L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.20 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 20W 6D 14L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or St. Truiden away?
Genk's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.16 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Genk or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Genk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Genk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 4, St. Truiden have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Genk and St. Truiden?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 58%, St. Truiden 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Genk) and 26% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 47%; St. Truiden in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Genk's recent matches and 37% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Genk's recent games and 26% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Genk and St. Truiden drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.39 xG and St. Truiden 1.10 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St. Truiden landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.33 / defence 1.00 against St. Truiden attack 0.78 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 43% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 30%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 62%, St. Truiden 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.65 PPG, St. Truiden 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.