Genk 3-3 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genk face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Genk welcome St. Truiden to Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genk have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Genk at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St. Truiden away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Genk) versus 1.40 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Genk's games and 60% of St. Truiden's (from Genk's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Genk, 1 for St. Truiden and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Genk 2–2 St. Truiden — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 58% versus St. Truiden 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 61% | St. Truiden 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.13 xG and St. Truiden 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.831 / defence 0.844 | St. Truiden attack 0.986 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.271. Data: built from Genk's last 40 games and St. Truiden's last 41.
Result probabilities: Genk 37% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 33%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.71 | Draw 3.37 | St. Truiden 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Genk 70% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 37% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Genk 1.13 / St. Truiden 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.831 / def 0.844 | St. Truiden attack 0.986 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Genk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.06
St. Truiden xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Genk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Genk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Genk 3 - 3 St. Truiden.
Where is Genk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs St. Truiden part of?
Genk vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 37% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Genk and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Genk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (0.83) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 40 games and St. Truiden's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.37
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Genk xG
Total xG
2.18
1.06
St. Truiden xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Genk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Genk and 1.06 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Genk have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 24W 10D 7L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 14W 11D 16L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.05 PPG from their last 20 home games (12W 5D 3L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 6W 7D 7L from their last 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.07 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
Genk (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or St. Truiden away?
Genk's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.05 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Genk have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Genk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 4, St. Truiden have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Genk and St. Truiden?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 60%, St. Truiden 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Genk) and 40% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Genk's games and 50% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genk and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Genk's recent games and 40% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Genk's recent matches and 55% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Genk and St. Truiden drew 3-3 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.13 xG and St. Truiden 1.06 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 37% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 33%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 61%, St. Truiden 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.