Genk 2-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genk have posted 3W 2D 5L at Cegeka Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Genk, 1.10 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Genk, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against OH Leuven — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Genk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Genk and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 56% | OH Leuven 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.35 xG and OH Leuven 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.891 / defence 1.069 | OH Leuven attack 0.861 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.035. Data: 45 Genk games / 45 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 45% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 26%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | OH Leuven 3.85. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genk 60% | OH Leuven 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 45% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Genk 1.35 / OH Leuven 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.891 / def 1.069 | OH Leuven attack 0.861 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Genk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.95
OH Leuven xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs OH Leuven kick off?
Genk vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs OH Leuven?
Genk 2 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Genk vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs OH Leuven part of?
Genk vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 45% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genk and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and OH Leuven?
Record (7 meetings): Genk 5W | Draws 0 | OH Leuven 2W.
What form are Genk and OH Leuven in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.86x) against Genk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Genk xG
Total xG
2.30
0.95
OH Leuven xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Genk and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Genk and 0.95 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Genk have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 30W 11D 14L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 13W 21D 21L from 55 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.04 PPG from 27 outings (17W 4D 6L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 4W 9D 14L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 30W 11D 14L in their last 55 games (1.84 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 13W 21D 21L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or OH Leuven away?
Genk's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.04 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Genk
1
Draws
2
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 7, OH Leuven have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genk and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and OH Leuven?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 48%, OH Leuven 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Genk) and 37% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; OH Leuven in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Genk's recent matches and 44% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Genk's recent games and 37% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out OH Leuven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.35 xG and OH Leuven 0.95 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against OH Leuven attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 45% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 26%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, OH Leuven 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.