Genk 3-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genk face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Genk 2W, Charleroi 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 52% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 56% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.07 xG and Charleroi 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.179 / defence 0.872 | Charleroi attack 0.846 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.016. Data: 44 Genk games / 44 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 66% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 10%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Genk (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 30% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 66% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Genk 2.07 / Charleroi 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.179 / def 0.872 | Charleroi attack 0.846 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Genk (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Charleroi xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 3 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 66% chance of winning, Charleroi a 10% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
Record (4 meetings): Genk 2W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Genk vs Charleroi?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.85x) against Genk's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
66%
1.53
25%
4.07
10%
10.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Genk xG
Total xG
2.82
0.75
Charleroi xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
10.12
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
80.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Genk and 0.75 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Genk have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 24W 11D 15L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 17W 11D 22L from 50 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (15W 6D 4L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 5D 15L from 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 24W 11D 15L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.04 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Genk or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 44%, Charleroi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Genk) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Charleroi in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genk's recent matches and 40% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Genk's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 3-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.07 xG and Charleroi 0.75 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 66% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 10%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.