Dender 2-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Charleroi travel to Dender Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender at Dender Football Complex this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dender, 3 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 57% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.830 / defence 1.330 | Charleroi attack 1.032 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.296. Data: 57 Dender games / 57 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55%. Fair-value odds: Dender 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dender 60% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Dender 1.01 / Charleroi 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.830 / def 1.330 | Charleroi attack 1.032 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Charleroi kick off?
Dender vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Dender 2 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Dender vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Charleroi part of?
Dender vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 21% chance of winning, Charleroi a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dender and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): Dender 2W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Dender and Charleroi in?
Dender (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.83) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
21%
4.77
24%
4.14
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Dender xG
Total xG
2.79
1.78
Charleroi xG
4.77
21%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
28.26
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dender and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Dender and 1.78 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 14W 21D 32L from 67 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 25L across 67 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 8W 11D 14L from 33 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 10W 7D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.39 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 14W 21D 32L in their last 67 games (0.94 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 26W 16D 25L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.06 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dender and Charleroi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dender
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 48%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dender) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Dender have failed to score in 36% of games; Charleroi in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dender's recent matches and 54% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dender's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Charleroi tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 28, as Dender and Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.78 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.83 / defence 1.33 against Charleroi attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.