Charleroi 0-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 10 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
OH Leuven (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Charleroi's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus OH Leuven 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 64% | OH Leuven 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.43 xG and OH Leuven 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.888 / defence 0.808 | OH Leuven attack 0.924 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.258. Data: 61 Charleroi games / 62 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 24%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | OH Leuven 4.17. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 40% | OH Leuven 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Charleroi 1.43 / OH Leuven 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.888 / def 0.808 | OH Leuven attack 0.924 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
OH Leuven xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 0 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 47% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.89x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.92x) against Charleroi's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.43
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.37
0.94
OH Leuven xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.94 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 27W 11D 24L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 19W 20D 23L from 62 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Charleroi against 1.24 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (14W 5D 12L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 7W 11D 13L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.45 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 65%.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 27W 11D 24L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 19W 20D 23L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Charleroi or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 42%, OH Leuven 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Charleroi) and 61% (OH Leuven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 29% of games; OH Leuven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Charleroi's recent matches and 68% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Charleroi's matches and 61% of OH Leuven's.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.43 xG and OH Leuven 0.94 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 47% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 24%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a OH Leuven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 64%, OH Leuven 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OH Leuven's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.48 PPG, OH Leuven 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.