Charleroi 0-3 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 27 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 3L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.56 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
OH Leuven (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 1W 5D 3L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Charleroi's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 50% and OH Leuven 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 65% | OH Leuven 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.932 / defence 0.973 | OH Leuven attack 0.903 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.535. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Charleroi games / 20 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | OH Leuven 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 33% | OH Leuven 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Charleroi 1.41 / OH Leuven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.932 / def 0.973 | OH Leuven attack 0.903 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.35
OH Leuven xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 0 - 3 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
Charleroi (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.93x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.90x) against Charleroi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.93
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.76
1.35
OH Leuven xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.35 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 10W 5D 5L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 5W 8D 7L from 20 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 1W 5D 3L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 75%.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.56 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Charleroi or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 33%, OH Leuven 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Charleroi) and 67% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Charleroi's games and 78% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Charleroi's recent games and 67% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OH Leuven run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 0-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. OH Leuven outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against OH Leuven attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 36%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 65%, OH Leuven 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.