Charleroi 3-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charleroi at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Kortrijk encounter.

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Analysis

Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Kortrijk have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kortrijk (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Charleroi, 1 for Kortrijk and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 54% versus Kortrijk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 53% | Kortrijk 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.45 xG and Kortrijk 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.865 / defence 1.121 | Kortrijk attack 0.831 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Data: 63 Charleroi games / 64 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 45% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 3.45. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 50% | Kortrijk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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