Charleroi 1-3 Gent – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Charleroi at 38%, yet in-form Gent provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Charleroi have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Gent have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Gent away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gent are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Charleroi's games and 60% of Gent's (from Charleroi's last 10 home games and Gent's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Charleroi have won 2, Gent 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Jan 2023, ended Charleroi 0–0 Gent — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Charleroi trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Gent trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus Gent 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | Gent 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Gent have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.26 xG and Gent 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.968 / defence 0.938 | Gent attack 0.877 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.321. Data: built from Charleroi's last 45 games and Gent's last 46.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 38% | Draw 33% | Gent 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.65 | Draw 3.02 | Gent 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gent (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 70% (last 10 home games) | Gent 60% (last 10 away games).

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