Charleroi 1-3 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gent are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gent in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 2, Gent 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gent trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus Gent 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | Gent 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.26 xG and Gent 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.968 / defence 0.938 | Gent attack 0.877 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.321. Data: 45 Charleroi games / 46 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 38% | Draw 33% | Gent 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Gent 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gent (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Gent 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 38% | Draw 33% | Gent 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.26 / Gent 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.968 / def 0.938 | Gent attack 0.877 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gent xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Gent.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 38% chance of winning, Gent a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
Record (4 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 1 | Gent 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Gent (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
38%
2.65
33%
3.02
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.35
1.08
Gent xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.08 for Gent, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 17W 10D 18L from 45 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 9L across 45 games — 1.87 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 10W 5D 7L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 10W 6D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.98 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Gent have gone 24W 12D 9L in their last 45 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.59 PPG; Gent away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gent in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 64%, Gent 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Charleroi) and 50% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 32%; Gent in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Charleroi's recent matches and 46% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Charleroi's recent games and 50% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Gent tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gent in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.26 xG and Gent 1.08 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Gent attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 38% | Draw 33% | Gent 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 56%, Gent 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.