Charleroi 5-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Charleroi welcome Dender to Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dender — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dender's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Charleroi) versus 1.20 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Charleroi have won 0, Dender 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Charleroi 0–1 Dender — a Dender win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dender in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 47% versus Dender 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 45% | Dender 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.36 xG and Dender 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.848 / defence 0.973 | Dender attack 0.996 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.115. Data: built from Charleroi's last 53 games and Dender's last 23.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 2.97 | Dender 3.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Charleroi 1.36 / Dender 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.848 / def 0.973 | Dender attack 0.996 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dender xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Dender FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Dender kick off?
Charleroi vs Dender kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Charleroi 5 - 0 Dender.
Where is Charleroi vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Dender part of?
Charleroi vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, Dender a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charleroi and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 53 games and Dender's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.97
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.44
1.08
Dender xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.08 for Dender, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 20W 10D 23L from 53 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 15L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.32 PPG, Dender on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 13W 5D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 12W 7D 7L across their last 26 away games, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.55 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Dender
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Dender in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Dender have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Dender away?
Charleroi's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.69 PPG; Dender away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dender in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-0 Dender.
Charleroi's record when hosting Dender specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 3, Dender have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Dender?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Dender 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charleroi) and 58% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dender in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 58% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charleroi's recent games and 58% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Charleroi's recent matches and 85% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Dender 5-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.36 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Dender attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, Dender 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Dender's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Dender 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.