Charleroi 3-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Antwerp arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus Antwerp 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | Antwerp 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.94 xG and Antwerp 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.872 / defence 0.845 | Antwerp attack 0.987 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.308. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Charleroi games / 44 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 35% | Antwerp 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Antwerp 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Antwerp 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 35% | Antwerp 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Charleroi 0.94 / Antwerp 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.872 / def 0.845 | Antwerp attack 0.987 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Antwerp xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 3 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 29% chance of winning, Antwerp a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.87x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.99x) against Charleroi's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
29%
3.49
35%
2.90
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.03
1.09
Antwerp xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.09 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 10D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.84 PPG from 43 outings (22W 13D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (7W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's season.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.60 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 22W 13D 8L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Antwerp in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 62%, Antwerp 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Charleroi) and 38% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 43%; Antwerp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Charleroi's recent matches and 33% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Charleroi's recent games and 38% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 3-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.94 xG and Antwerp 1.09 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antwerp outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.87 / defence 0.84 against Antwerp attack 0.99 / defence 0.70, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 29% | Draw 35% | Antwerp 37%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 56%, Antwerp 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.