Charleroi 0-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Charleroi, 1.10 for Anderlecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Anderlecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Charleroi 1W, Anderlecht 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Anderlecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 66% | Anderlecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.31 xG and Anderlecht 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.922 / defence 1.071 | Anderlecht attack 0.994 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.388. Data: 50 Charleroi games / 50 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 34% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Anderlecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | Anderlecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 34% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Charleroi 1.31 / Anderlecht 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.922 / def 1.071 | Anderlecht attack 0.994 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Anderlecht xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 34% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.92x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.99x) against Charleroi's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
34%
2.97
25%
3.96
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.79
1.48
Anderlecht xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
13.03
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.48 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 11D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 26W 14D 16L from 56 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Charleroi against 1.64 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (11W 6D 10L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 11W 7D 9L from 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 23W 11D 22L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 26W 14D 16L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 48%, Anderlecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Charleroi) and 59% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 26% of games; Anderlecht in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charleroi's recent matches and 52% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Charleroi's matches and 59% of Anderlecht's.
Do Charleroi and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.31 xG and Anderlecht 1.48 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Anderlecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 34% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 66%, Anderlecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.