AS Eupen 1-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 39%, yet in-form AS Eupen provide a compelling counter-argument — this AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Stadion am Kehrweg: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 2W 2D 2L from 6 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AS Eupen are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 69% and Zulte Waregem 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Eupen 77% | Zulte Waregem 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.65 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.983 / defence 1.236 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.893 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.506. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing AS Eupen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 AS Eupen games / 13 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 38% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 39%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Zulte Waregem 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Eupen (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 83% | Zulte Waregem 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 38% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG AS Eupen 1.65 / Zulte Waregem 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.983 / def 1.236 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.893 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Zulte Waregem xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
AS Eupen 1 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem part of?
AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 38% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
38%
2.61
23%
4.35
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.31
1.66
Zulte Waregem xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.66 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 6W 2D 5L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 6L across 13 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Eupen by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.62 scored and 2.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.17 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Zulte Waregem won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
2
Draws
4
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AS Eupen at 83%, Zulte Waregem at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AS Eupen and 67% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of AS Eupen's games and 83% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AS Eupen's matches and 67% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 14, as AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.65 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.66 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 38% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 39%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 77%, Zulte Waregem 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Eupen arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.