AS Eupen 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Kortrijk travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AS Eupen's home record at Kehrwegstadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Eupen 0.90 PPG, Kortrijk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Eupen, 1 for Kortrijk and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 52% versus Kortrijk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 55% | Kortrijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.14 xG and Kortrijk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.675 / defence 1.134 | Kortrijk attack 0.803 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. AS Eupen's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 AS Eupen games / 64 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 37% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Kortrijk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 40% | Kortrijk 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 37% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG AS Eupen 1.14 / Kortrijk 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.675 / def 1.134 | Kortrijk attack 0.803 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kortrijk xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
AS Eupen 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk part of?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 37% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AS Eupen and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Record (6 meetings): AS Eupen 1W | Draws 4 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.44
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.21
1.07
Kortrijk xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.07 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 14W 10D 40L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 14W 13D 37L from 64 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 0.81 PPG, Kortrijk on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 0.94 PPG from 32 outings (8W 6D 18L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 5D 21L from 32 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.92 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 14W 10D 40L in their last 64 games (0.81 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 14W 13D 37L in their last 64 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Kortrijk away?
AS Eupen's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.94 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Eupen's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
5
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, Kortrijk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 59%, Kortrijk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AS Eupen) and 59% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 28% of games; Kortrijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 47% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of AS Eupen's matches and 59% of Kortrijk's.
Do AS Eupen and Kortrijk tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen and Kortrijk finished level at 1-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Relegation Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.14 xG and Kortrijk 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.68 / defence 1.13 against Kortrijk attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 37% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 34%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 55%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.81 PPG, Kortrijk 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.