Antwerp 0-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 5 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 April 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 3D 2L at Bosuilstadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antwerp at 1.40 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Antwerp, 0 for Union St. Gilloise and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 39% versus Union St. Gilloise 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Union St. Gilloise 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.39 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.179 / defence 0.815 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.323 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Antwerp games / 64 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 40% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 34%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Union St. Gilloise 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 50% | Union St. Gilloise 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 40% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Antwerp 1.39 / Union St. Gilloise 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.179 / def 0.815 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.323 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Union St. Gilloise xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 40% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 2 | Union St. Gilloise 0W.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.18x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.84
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.65
1.27
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.27 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 40W 18D 16L from 74 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 46W 15D 13L across 74 games — 2.07 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.86 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 24W 8D 4L from 36 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 21W 9D 6L across 36 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.96 scored and 1.19 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's attacking output running into Antwerp's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 70%.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 40W 18D 16L in their last 74 games (1.86 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 15D 13L in their last 74 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Antwerp's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.22 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 44%, Union St. Gilloise 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Antwerp) and 61% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Antwerp's games and 72% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Antwerp's matches and 61% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 0-3 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.39 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.27 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.32 / defence 0.75, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 40% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Union St. Gilloise 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.86 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.